The second week of May kicks off with the Central Bank’s growth proxy, the IBC-Br, forecast to remain in the red as the recession continues to bite. Next will be the CNI’s Business Confidence Index – it is hoped there will be a small increase. In addition, there will be employment and the Industrial production data. Below is the full schedule of releases in Brazil from Monday, May 15 to Friday, May 19 (all times are local).
Monday morning sees the release of the Central Bank’s Focus Report (08:25) – inflation is already at low levels and growth forecasts continue to retreat, will Brazilian economist now increase bets of further cuts to the SELIC rate? Hot on the heels of the Focus Report is the Central Bank’s growth proxy, the IBC-Br (08:30), the index is expected to fall due to the continued recession in Brazil, with forecasts ranging from -0.3% to -0.9%. In the afternoon, the commercial balance will be disclosed (15:00) – it is expected to remain favourable.
The second day of the week starts with inflation figures, measured by the IGP-10 (08:00). The gauge is expected to register a drop of around 1% due to an intense fall in the price of iron ore. At the same time, the FGV will release its weekly consumer inflation index for the second week of May, the IPC-S (08:00). For the rest of the day the agenda is empty, investors will look abroad to Europe, where the first preview of GDP will be released, and Germany where the ZEW Economic Survey will be disclosed. In the US, industrial production figures will be watched closely by the markets.
The middle of the week brings the Fiesp/Ciesp industrial activity (INA) and capacity utilisation (NUCI) numbers for Sao Paulo. In the last measure, the INA hit 1.9% in the first quarter, ending seven quarters of decline. The Capacity utilisation index fell 0.6 percentage point from 74.7% in February to 74.1% in March. On the day, there will also be the release of the CNI’s Business Confidence Index for May. In its last incarnation, the gauge fell to 53.1 points from a 3-year high in March of 54 points. Analysts are hoping there will be a small increase during the month as the green shoots of recovery continue to appear. There will also be the release of currency flows from the Central Bank (12:30).
On Thursday, the day starts with the FIPE Sao Paulo inflation measure (05:00), after there will be the IGP-M second preview of May (08:00). There will also be the release of IBGE: continuous PNAD survey for May (09:00).
The week closes with the CNI’s industrial sector research, where in the figures for March, production increased across all components of the research.
★★★ Market Mover
Monday, May 15
08:25 | Central Bank of Brazil: Focus Report| ★★
08:25 | Central Bank of Brazil: IBC-Br Index | ★★★
15:00 | Balance of Trade | ★★★
Tuesday, May 16
08:00 | FGV: IPC-S (semanal)| ★
08:00 | FGV: IGP-10| ★★
Wednesday, May 17
12:30 | Central Bank of Brazil: Currency Flows | ★
On the day | Fiesp/Ciesp industrial activity and capacity utilisation | ★
On the day | CNI’s Business Confidence Index| ★★
Thursday, May 18
05:00 | FIPE CPI (Weekly Measures) | ★
08:00 | FGV: IGP-M | ★★
09:00 | IBGE: continuous PNAD survey | ★★
Friday, May 19
On the day | CNI’s industrial sector research | ★★