It is another holiday-shortened week here in Brazil and one that is rather thin with top-line data releases. The main highlights are the Markit Manufacturing PMI and the Balance of Trade on the first day of the week, the next day brings industrial production and, on the final day, car sales. Below is the full schedule of releases in Brazil from Monday, May 01 to Friday, May 05 (all times are local).
Monday, May 01 is a holiday in Brazil (Workers’ Day), which means the markets will be closed. The first working day of the week (02), kicks off with FGV weekly inflation data and after the Central Bank’s Focus Survey will be disclosed. At the opening of the market, Markit will release the Manufacturing PMI, in the afternoon, the trade balance will be released. At some point in the day, Fenabrave will report new vehicle registrations. In the middle of the week (03), the IBGE will release industrial production figures and the CNI will also do the same. Midday, the Central Bank will announce currency and commodity information. On Thursday, there will be the release of Sao Paulo inflation and the Markit composite index and, finally, on Friday, we will have the production and sales of new vehicles from Anfavea.
★★★ Market Mover
Monday, May 01
Markets are shuttered for the Workers’ Day holiday in Brazil.
Tuesday, May 02
Tuesday starts with FGV weekly inflation data, the IPC-S (0.31% in the last reading), 25 minutes later, the Central Bank of Brazil will release the Focus Report. In the last release, economists cut inflation and growth forecasts. It doesn’t look likely inflation forecasts can be cut any lower, however, growth can be. Next up will be Markit’s Manufacturing PMI for which the forecast is at 49.9 after the measure hit 49.6 in the last reading. Will the index inch closer to the 50-point threshold that indicates expansion? In the afternoon, the balance of trade will be announced – a bright spot in an otherwise dark period for Brazil and, finally, on Friday Fenabrave will release new vehicle registrations. Away from Brazil, in Europe, the unemployment rate will be one of the most anticipated releases of the day.
08:00 am | FGV: IPC-S (semanal)| ★
08:25 am | Central Bank of Brazil: Focus Report| ★★
09:00 am |Markit: Manufacturing PMI| ★★
03:00 pm |Balance of Trade| ★★★
On the day: Fenabrave: New Vehicle Registrations
Wednesday, May 03
Hump day kicks off with the IBGE’s monthly industrial production figures – last month the index was up 0.1%, however, it is forecast the index will fall by 0.5% this month. After these figures, it is the turn of the CNI to release its own industrial gauge. On the day, the Central Bank will also release currency flows and the commodity index. Abroad, GDP figures for the Eurozone will be closely watched; there will also be the European Central Bank’s rate decision.
09:00 am | IBGE: Industrial Production (Monthly and yearly) | ★★★
11:00 am | CNI: Industrial Indicators | ★
12:30 pm | Central Bank of Brazil: Currency Flows | ★
12:30 pm | Central Bank of Brazil: Commodity Index| ★★
Thursday, May 04
Thursday kicks off early with Sao Paulo inflation data, and then there will be the release of the Markit Composite and Service PMIs. In the US, unemployment data, the balance of trade and durable goods orders will also hold sway here in Brazil. In Europe, there will also be the release of retail sales.
05:00 am | FIPE CPI (Weekly Measures) | ★
10:00 am | Markit: Composite PMI | ★
10:00 am | Markit: Services PMI| ★
Friday, May 05
At the end of the week, Anfavea will release vehicle production data, the one and only domestic release for the day. However, the main event will be in the US, there will be the release of payrolls data in addition to the unemployment rate.
09:00 am | Anfavea: Vehicle Production | ★★
A serene week here in Brazil, and not much in the way to give clues how the Brazilian economy is progressing. However, data is moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction, now the most important part of the equation are reforms progressing in the Brazilian senate. Even if the data improves, without fiscal, pension and labour reforms pushed through congress in a meaningful state, Brazil will go to hell in a handcart. Let us hope this week brings more progress with the reforms and data keeps getting better.
Have a productive (short) week!