It’s another holiday-shortened week here in Brazil, however, there are some important releases such as the minutes of the Central Bank meeting and inflation data. Below is the full schedule of economic releases in Brazil from Monday, April 17 to Friday, April 21 (all times are local).
The third week of April kicks off with inflation data from the FGV, first consumer data for the second week of March and then the IGP-10 (general inflation gauge) for April. After will be the Central Bank’s Focus Survey and, finally, economic activity data. Tuesday will bring business confidence data in addition to the minutes of the meeting of the Copom. On Wednesday, the FGV will release the IGP-M second preview for April. Thursday, the last day of the week, will start with the FIPE-IPC inflation gauge for Sao Paulo to be followed up by the mid-month IPCA. During the week, there should also be the release of tax collection data and CAGED employment data from the MTE. Friday is a national holiday (Tiradentes Day).
★★★ Market Mover
Monday, April 17
The week starts with consumer inflation data (IPC-S), published by the FGV, which advanced 0.49% in the last reading with highs from the food group and electricity. After will be the release of the General Price Index, which includes wholesale, consumer and construction prices, expected to show a fall during the month. Twenty-five minutes later, the Central Bank’s Focus Survey will be disclosed. Hot on the heels of the Focus Survey will be activity data (IBC-Br) for the month of February, forecast to increase from 0.1% to 0.5%, but we should not get carried away, this has as much chance as being negative given Brazil’s recent performance.
08:00 am | FGV CPI IPC-S | ★★
08:00 am | FGV IGP-10 Month on Month| ★
08:25 am | Central Bank Weekly Economist Survey | ★★
08:30 am | IBC-Br Economic Activity | ★★★
Tuesday, April 18
The highlight for Tuesday will be the release of the Copom minutes from the meeting held on April 12. The minutes should reinforce the view that any increase in the pace of rate cutting will depend on the evolution of the economic indicators, inflation expectations and the progress of fiscal reforms. It will be important to gauge from the minutes if the above factors will be judged equally. Also on the day will be the release of business confidence indicators, which, in spite of troubles with the economy, are expected to increase.
08:00 am | COPOM Meeting Minutes | ★★★
On the day | Business Confidence Data| ★
Wednesday, April 19
The day brings the IGP-M inflation data, which is expected to show deflation for the month of April and currency flows data from the Central Bank.
08:00 am | FGV IGP-M Preview| ★
12:30 pm | Weekly Currency Flows| ★
Thursday, April 20
The last day of the week kicks off early with Sao Paulo inflation data, then there will be the release of the mid-month IPCA inflation index, with forecasts for a print of 0.20%, a slight increase from the month before.
05:00 am | FIPE CPI (Weekly Measures) | ★
09:00 am | IPCA mid-month CPI (Monthly and Yearly)| ★★★
Friday, April 21
There are no top-line data releases today as it is a national holiday (Tiradentes Day).
A fairly straightforward week with mainly inflation data, which should show how the rate cuts are affecting the economy, in addition to activity data – an important metric for the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The highlight of the week will certainly be the Central Bank’s minutes, which will be scrutinised for further clues on interest rates.
Have a productive week!