Although the schedule is not as heavy as last week, investors are hoping there will be increased signals that the Brazilian economy is turning a corner. Below is the full schedule of economic releases in Brazil from Monday, April 4 to Friday, April 08 (all times are local).
The first week of April kicks-off with consumer inflation data, collected by the FGV, then manufacturing and trade data. On Tuesday, the market will be focused on Industrial Production numbers (to be released at the start of the day) and, on Wednesday, Markit will make its composite and services PMIs known. Towards the end of the week, there will be car sales and production data in addition to inflation measures.
★★★ Market Mover
Monday, March 4
The week starts with consumer inflation data, published by the FGV, in last week’s release the index was at 0.39%. Twenty-five minutes later, the Central Bank’s Focus Survey will be disclosed. Next, the first of two important data releases will be the Markit Manufacturing PMI (the previous level was 46.9 points). Economists expect the index to close the month virtually stable at 47 points. In the afternoon, trade balance data for the month will be disclosed. February came in at $ 4.5 billion and it is hoped in March the figure will be around the same. Also on the day, National Association of Vehicle Distributors (Fenabrave) will release sales data.
08:00 am | FGV CPI IPC-S | ★★
08:25 am | Central Bank Weekly Economist Survey | ★★
10:00 am | Markit Manufacturing PMI | ★★★
15:00 pm | Trade Balance Data | ★★★
On the day: Fenabrave Vehicle Sales | ★★
Tuesday, March 5
Tuesday starts early with inflation data, both Weekly and Monthly measures from FIFE, which measures the rate of inflation in Sao Paulo. Last month the gauge was at -0.08%. After there will Industrial Production numbers, which retreated by 10 basis points on a monthly comparison but are up by 1.4% in the yearly comparison. Finally, the day will close with consumer confidence numbers. Last month, confidence increased to 104.4 points – it was the highest reading since October last year, as households were more optimistic regarding future employment and inflation levels. The expectations for this month is an increase of 104.8 points. Across the globe, expect investors to be watching the US Balance of Trade release and a speech from Mario Draghi between releases.
05:00 am | FIPE CPI (Weekly and Monthly Measures) | ★
09:00 am | Industrial Production (MoM and YoY) | ★★★
12:00 pm | CNI Consumer confidence | ★
Wednesday, March 6
Wednesday is also a little bare on the data front in Brazil. Up first is the Markit Brazil Composite and Services PMIs. The previous level for the Composite Index was 46.6 points and this is expected to rise to 48 points. Next, the Services Index currently sits at 46.4 and this is hoped to rise to 47.5 points. Later in the day, the Commodity Price Index will be released, which is expected to be positive after months of declines. During the lulls in Brazilian data releases, the market will be looking at ADP Payrolls, Manufacturing data and the FOMC minutes from the US.
09:00 am | Markit Brazil Composite and Services PMIs | ★★
13:30 pm | Commodity Price Index (MoM and YoY)) | ★★
Thursday, March 07
The penultimate day of the week brings general price inflation data from the FGV, expected to fall to 0.05% in the monthly measure and 4.86 in the yearly terms. After cames vehicle production, sales and export numbers from the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). Expect markets to also be eyeing the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping.
08:00 am | FGV Inflation IGP-DI (MoM and YoY) | ★★★
11:20 am | Anfavea Vehicle Production, Sales and Exports | ★★
Friday, March 08
Finally, the week ends with a light schedule, with only one important release. The IBGE will disclose inflation data, which is expected to fall to 0.22%, paving the way for an increased cut by the Central Bank of 100 basis points. Also, expect this day to be heavily influenced by non-farm payrolls disclosed in the US.
09:00 am | IBGE Inflation IPCA (MoM and YoY) | ★★★
A fairly light but, nonetheless, important start to the month. If the inflation data keeps falling and it has been doing, it is almost certain the Central Bank of Brazil will cut the Selic rate by 100 basis points at its next meeting to be held on April 12.
Have a productive week!