Below is the economic calendar for March 27 to 31 in Brazil.
It’s a fairly heavy week on the data side, with a bunch of releases that could move the markets. Monday kicks off with Federal tax revenues and the weekly release of the trade balance, Tuesday is bare, but things get going again on Wednesday with lending data. Thursday is chocked, most notable releases are FGV inflation gauges and retail sales. The week ends with GDP data, the unemployment rate, net debt and the primary budget balance.
Monday 27 (All times are local)
08:00 – FGV consumer confidence
08:25 – Central bank focus report
10:30 – Federal tax revenues
15:00 – Weekly trade balance
On the day: CNI Consumer Confidence
There will be two important releases on Monday, the first will be Federal tax revenues, which were R$137.4 billion, this month the consensus is R$95 billion. After there will be the release of the weekly trade balance, which should start registering the effects of “meatgate”.
05:00 – FIPE weekly CPI
08:00 – FGV construction costs
09:00 – PPI manufacturing month on month
09:00 – PPI manufacturing year on year
On the day: Federal debt total
Tuesday offers slim pickings from Brazil, expect investors to be paying attention to wholesale inventories, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and consumer confidence in the US.
09:00 – IBGE services sector volume
10:30 – Outstanding loans month on month
10:30 – Total outstanding loans
10:30 – Personal loan default rate
12:30 – Currency flows
Loans data will be closely watched on hump day after lending retreated by 1% last month.
08:00 – FGV inflation IGPM month on month
08:00 – FGV inflation IGPM year on year
09:00 – Retail sales month on month
09:00 – Retail sales year on year
09:00 – Retail sales broad month on month
09:00 – Retail Sales broad year on year
On the day: Central Bank’s inflation report.
The Central Bank’s Inflation Report will be picked over for extra clues concerning the pace of rate cuts. In the morning there will also be retail sales, expect more woe, the consensus is around -4%.
08:30 – Proxy GDP (IBR) month on month
08:30 – Proxy GDP (IBR) year on year
09:00 – National unemployment rate
10:30 – Net debt to GDP
10:30 – Nominal budget balance
10:30 – Primary budget balance
12:00 – Consumer confidence
During the day: Long Term Rate (TJLP)
Friday is a busy day of releases, we kick off with the Central Banks GDP measure which is hoped to be positive (consensus: 0.135), next up is the unemployment rate, after there are budgetary balances and, finally, the day closes with consumer expectations. This should set the tone for the first week of April.