The week ahead in Brazil

Below is the economic calendar for March 27 to 31 in Brazil.

It’s a fairly heavy week on the data side, with a bunch of releases that could move the markets. Monday kicks off with Federal tax revenues and the weekly release of the trade balance, Tuesday is bare, but things get going again on Wednesday with lending data. Thursday is chocked, most notable releases are FGV inflation gauges and retail sales. The week ends with GDP data, the unemployment rate, net debt and the primary budget balance.

Monday 27 (All times are local)

08:00 FGV consumer confidence

08:25 – Central bank focus report

10:30Federal tax revenues

15:00Weekly trade balance

On the day: CNI Consumer Confidence

There will be two important releases on Monday, the first will be Federal tax revenues, which were R$137.4 billion, this month the consensus is R$95 billion. After there will be the release of the weekly trade balance, which should start registering the effects of “meatgate”.

Tuesday 28

05:00FIPE weekly CPI 

08:00FGV construction costs

09:00 – PPI manufacturing month on month

09:00 – PPI manufacturing year on year

On the day: Federal debt total

Tuesday offers slim pickings from Brazil, expect investors to be paying attention to wholesale inventories, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and consumer confidence in the US.

Wednesday 29

09:00 – IBGE services sector volume

10:30Outstanding loans month on month

10:30Total outstanding loans

10:30Personal loan default rate

12:30 – Currency flows

Loans data will be closely watched on hump day after lending retreated by 1% last month.

Thursday 30

08:00FGV inflation IGPM month on month

08:00FGV inflation IGPM year on year

09:00Retail sales month on month

09:00 – Retail sales year on year

09:00Retail sales broad month on month

09:00Retail Sales broad year on year

On the day: Central Bank’s inflation report.

The Central Bank’s Inflation Report will be picked over for extra clues concerning the pace of rate cuts. In the morning there will also be retail sales, expect more woe, the consensus is around -4%.

Friday 30

08:30 – Proxy GDP (IBR) month on month

08:30 – Proxy GDP (IBR) year on year

09:00National unemployment rate

10:30 – Net debt to GDP

10:30Nominal budget balance 

10:30Primary budget balance 

12:00 – Consumer confidence

During the day: Long Term Rate (TJLP)

Friday is a busy day of releases, we kick off with the Central Banks GDP measure which is hoped to be positive (consensus: 0.135), next up is the unemployment rate, after there are budgetary balances and, finally, the day closes with consumer expectations. This should set the tone for the first week of April.

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